Often it is suggested that over population is the source of our environmental emerging problems affecting sustainability. Around the dawn of agriculture, the human population began to exponentially increase and continues today. As the population increased, the world began to divide into developed and non-developed regions. Today, the number of people living in undeveloped regions greatly outweigh the number of people living in developed regions. The main cause of this delineation is human welfare. Even though the death rates are high in non-developed countries due to AIDS and malnutrition, the population continues to increase exponentially. In developed nations, the death rates are low and our population is stabilized. Poor living conditions and uneducation women can lead to having more children. Human welfare also corresponds with a region's ecological footprint. Initially the ecological footprint will increase as a country develops and the quality of human welfare increases. Once human welfare increases to a certain point the ecological footprint starts to decrease as there is money to put into making production more efficient and sustainable.
The United Nations has produced 4 scenarios related to global population growth in its Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. It has been predicted that the global population will level out around 9 billion. The manner in which we chose to manage the environment and the future development of the world can be inferred using four scenario models:
1) The Adapting Mosaic
2) Global Orchestration
3) Order from Strength
4) TechnoGarden
These scenario models can be related to own another by the table below:
Ecosystem Management | Global Development | |
Globalization | Regionalization | |
Proactive | TechnoGarden | Adapting Mosaic |
Reactive | Global Orchestration | Order from Strength |
The Adapting Mosaic
This model uses a proactive approach to ecosystem management by increasing regionalization and developing local or regional solutions which will lead to increases diversity. Increasing the diversity will make the communities more resilient to environmental, economic and social disasters. Some outcomes associated with the adapting mosaic model are:
1) Rise in local ecosystem management strategies
2) Strengthen local institutions
3) Improving knowledge about ecosystem functioning and management
4) Trade barriers for goods and products are increased
5) Barriers for information nearly disappear
6) Subject to the tragedy of the commons
7) Built on successes and failures of communities and trading of information
Order from Strength
This model represents the regionalized and fragmented world. Nations will close their doors to each other as a form of protecting their economic stability. This model focuses primarily on countries looking out for number one resulting in strong regulation and policing of the movement of goods, people and information. This model uses a “Darwin Theory” approach as only the strong nations and people will survive. Some outcomes associated with the Order from Strength model are:
1) Expanding the role of government
2) Technological change slows (from the decrease in trading of goods and information)
3) Increases global inequality
4) Degradation of global commons (Treaties are not weakly implemented)
5) Increased gap of rich and poor within countries
6) Shortages in food and water in poorer regions
7) Decreased diversity
Global Orchestration
This model incorporates a globally connected society with open markets with equal participation and equal access to goods and services. The design aims at reshaping economies and governance. This model also focuses on improving human welfare by: global public health and education. Global Orchestration outcomes:
1) Lack of focus on ecosystem management increases vulnerability to unexpected environmental situations
2) Global environmental issues can be dealt with
3) Expand into a global middle class (ending poverty)
4) Increases global consumption
5) Decrease in ecosystem services (water, food, recreation)
6) Increase in ability to find substitutes for ecosystem services
7) Expansion of abrupt, unpredictable changes in ecosystems
TechnoGarden
This scenario focuses on a globally connected society focused on technology to develop our ecosystem services. Solutions are developed to protect both the economy and the environment. This model uses the surfacing of property rights to reduce the amount of ecological damage by paying for emissions. Ecological engineering is the key to managing ecosystems in this model. Some outcomes of the TechnoGarden are:
1) Increase in Green Technology
2) New markets for ecosystem services associated with agriculture (tradable nutrient runoff permits)
3) Environmental entrepreneurship expands
4) Forms a global middle class (ending poverty)
5) Loss of local culture, customs and traditional knowledge
6) Reliance on technology creates new problems (often from old solutions)
7) Growth of companies and cooperatives providing technologically developed ecosystem services
In conclusion we can compare these models and their effect on population, human welfare, malnourishment and the number of ecosystem services. All these comparisions were made in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Below is an example relating the 4 scerarios to the effect they will have on change in ecosystem services.
These models all indicated that in order to reduce population we need to increase the human welfare globally by providing education, health and nourishment. This will also increase the rate of consumption as people gain knowledge and money to buy the things they want and need. As the rate of consumption increases so does our ecological footprint. Hans Rosling has spoke about this situation very clear in a TED talk you can find by clicking this link:
In conclusion, both consumption and population need to decrease in order to live within the carrying capacity of the Earth. Consumption in the developed nations has gotten out of hand. Where as population growth in non-developed countries has increased. Both situations need remedies as the Earth continues to get smaller. I would like to end this blog with a video of Prince Charles advice for the 21st Century. It is about 40 minutes long, but very enjoyable.
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